Florida · District 19
Schwartzel wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-19 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+23.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+35.5 and R+12.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Victor Arias (D) vs. Jim Schwartzel (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Arias 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Arias 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Byron Donalds (R), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Arias's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026