Alabama · District 2
Marques wins 74 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AL-2 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+3.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+10.4 and D+3.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
26
74
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Figures 26 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Figures 26 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Shomari Figures (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Figures's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Alabama
- Alabama 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026