California · District 23
Obernolte wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CA-23 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+16.6, and 8 in 10 fall between R+28.5 and R+4.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) vs. Jay Obernolte (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Hodge 4 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Hodge 4 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Jay Obernolte (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Hodge's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in California
- California 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 48
DEM WINS
REP WINS
92
8
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 39
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026