Hawaii · District 1
Case wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates HI-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+34.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+23.1 and D+46.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ed Case (D) vs. Adriel Lam (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+50EvenD+50
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Case 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Case 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Ed Case (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Case's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Hawaii
- Hawaii 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026