Michigan · District 12
Tlaib wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-12 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+49.3, and 8 in 10 fall between D+37.4 and D+61.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Rashida Tlaib (D) vs. James Hooper (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+65EvenD+65
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Tlaib 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Tlaib 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Rashida Tlaib (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Tlaib's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026