Arizona · District 6
Mendoza wins 60 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-6 lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+1.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+6.0 and D+8.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
JoAnna Mendoza (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Mendoza 60 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Mendoza 56 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Juan Ciscomani (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Mendoza's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026