Massachusetts · District 9
Keating wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MA-9 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+21.1, and 8 in 10 fall between D+9.2 and D+32.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Bill Keating (D) vs. Tyler MacAllister (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Keating 98 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Keating 98 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Bill Keating (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Keating's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Massachusetts
- Massachusetts 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026