Oklahoma · District 3
Lucas wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OK-3 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+43.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+55.4 and R+31.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Suzie Byrd (D) vs. Frank Lucas (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+60EvenD+60
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Byrd 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Byrd 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Frank Lucas (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Byrd's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Oklahoma
- Oklahoma 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026