Hawaii · District 2
Tokuda wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates HI-2 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+31.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+20.2 and D+43.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jill Tokuda (D) vs. Brenton Awa (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Tokuda 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Tokuda 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Jill Tokuda (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Tokuda's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Hawaii
- Hawaii 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026