Delaware · At-large district
McBride wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates DE-AL safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+24.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+13.1 and D+36.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Sarah McBride (D) vs. Joseph Arminio (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- McBride 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- McBride 99 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Sarah McBride (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
McBride's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026