Florida · District 4
Bean wins 92 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+8.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+16.8 and R+0.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
8
92
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
LaShonda Holloway (D) vs. Aaron Bean (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Holloway 8 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Holloway 8 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Aaron Bean (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Holloway's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026