North Carolina · District 10
Harrigan wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-10 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+14.6, and 8 in 10 fall between R+24.1 and R+4.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ashley Bell (D) vs. Pat Harrigan (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Bell 3 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Bell 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Pat Harrigan (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Bell's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026