California · District 5
McClintock wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CA-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+18.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+29.8 and R+6.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Michael Masuda (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Masuda 3 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Masuda 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Tom McClintock (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Masuda's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in California
- California 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 48
DEM WINS
REP WINS
92
8
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 39
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026