South Dakota · At-large district
Jackley wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates SD-AL safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+15.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+24.1 and R+6.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Nikki Gronli (D) vs. Marty Jackley (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Gronli 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Gronli 2 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Dusty Johnson (R), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Gronli's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026