Illinois · District 4
Garcia wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IL-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+35.4, and 8 in 10 fall between D+26.6 and D+44.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Patty Garcia (D) vs. Lupe Castillo (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Garcia 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Garcia 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Chuy Garcia (D), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Garcia's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Illinois
- Illinois 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026