Michigan · District 10
Jr. wins 53 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-10 a toss-up. The middle simulated result is R+0.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+7.6 and D+6.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Christina Hines (D) vs. Mike Bouchard Jr. (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Hines 47 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Hines 44 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- John James (R), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Hines's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026