Arizona · District 1
Shah wins 72 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-1 likely Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+3.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+4.1 and D+10.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Amish Shah (D) vs. Jay Feely (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Shah 72 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Shah 66 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean D
- Incumbent
- David Schweikert (R), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Shah's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026