Montana · District 1
Flint wins 75 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MT-1 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+3.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+10.4 and D+3.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
25
75
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Sam Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Forstag 25 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Forstag 25 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean R
- Incumbent
- Ryan Zinke (R), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Forstag's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Montana
- Montana 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026