Ohio · District 4
Jordan wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OH-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+39.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+50.6 and R+27.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs. Jim Jordan (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+55EvenD+55
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Kolasinski 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Kolasinski 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Jim Jordan (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Kolasinski's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Ohio
- Ohio 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
37
63
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
16
84
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
87
13
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026