New Jersey · District 4
Smith wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NJ-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+28.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+40.0 and R+16.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Rachel Peace (D) vs. Chris Smith (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Peace 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Peace 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Chris Smith (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Peace's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Jersey
- New Jersey 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
64
36
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026