Illinois · District 6
Casten wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IL-6 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+15.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+4.0 and D+27.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Sean Casten (D) vs. Niki Conforti (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Casten 95 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Casten 94 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Sean Casten (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Casten's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Illinois
- Illinois 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026