Texas Senate
Talarico wins 59 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates Texas lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+1.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+5.4 and D+7.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)
If the election were today: Talarico, 69 in 100
Beside the benchmarks
| Our simulation, Nov. 3 | Talarico 59 in 100 |
|---|---|
| Statistics only, no simulation | Talarico 61 in 100 |
| Prediction markets | Talarico 64% |
| Poll average | D+3.0 |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
The spread
100 of the 40,000 simulated elections
Each dot is one simulated election, placed by its margin.
Margin
Our range beside the poll average
Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the dot is the middle result.
Over time
Talarico's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
What moved it
The news, as the voter personas reacted to it
No story moved this race today.
What the news is worth.All news so far moves the Nov. 3 margin by R+0.3 (0.2 from switching, 0.1 from turnout). If news matters less, Talarico wins 61 in 100; if it matters more, 58.
Other close races
- AlaskaToss-up
Peltola vs. Sullivan
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio (special)Lean D
Brown vs. Husted
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
58
42
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- IowaLean R
Turek vs. Hinson
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- MaineLean D
Jackson vs. Collins
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
62
38
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
James Talarico is the Democrat. Incumbent lost renomination in runoff. How the simulation works