Kansas Senate
Marshall wins 66 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates Kansas likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.5 and D+4.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
34
66
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)
If the election were today: Marshall, 54 in 100
Beside the benchmarks
| Our simulation, Nov. 3 | Hamilton 34 in 100 |
|---|---|
| Statistics only, no simulation | Hamilton 32 in 100 |
| Prediction markets | Hamilton 38% |
| Poll average | D+1.4 |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
The spread
100 of the 40,000 simulated elections
Each dot is one simulated election, placed by its margin.
Margin
Our range beside the poll average
Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the dot is the middle result.
Over time
Hamilton's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
What moved it
The news, as the voter personas reacted to it
No story moved this race today.
What the news is worth.All news so far moves the Nov. 3 margin by D+0.3 (0.1 from switching, 0.2 from turnout). If news matters less, Hamilton wins 32 in 100; if it matters more, 36.
Other close races
- AlaskaToss-up
Peltola vs. Sullivan
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio (special)Lean D
Brown vs. Husted
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
58
42
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- IowaLean R
Turek vs. Hinson
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- TexasLean D
Talarico vs. Paxton
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Adam Hamilton is the Democrat. Incumbent renominated. How the simulation works