Alaska Senate · ranked-choice voting
Peltola wins 54 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates Alaska a toss-up. The middle simulated result is D+0.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+6.0 and D+7.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan S. Sullivan (R)
If the election were today: Peltola, 56 in 100
Beside the benchmarks
| Our simulation, Nov. 3 | Peltola 54 in 100 |
|---|---|
| Statistics only, no simulation | Peltola 51 in 100 |
| Prediction markets | Peltola 73% |
| Poll average | D+2.9 |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
The spread
100 of the 40,000 simulated elections
Each dot is one simulated election, placed by its margin.
Margin
Our range beside the poll average
Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the dot is the middle result.
Over time
Peltola's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
What moved it
The news, as the voter personas reacted to it
- R+0.0President Trump announced an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
What the news is worth.All news so far moves the Nov. 3 margin by D+0.4 (0.2 from switching, 0.2 from turnout). If news matters less, Peltola wins 51 in 100; if it matters more, 56.
Other close races
- Ohio (special)Lean D
Brown vs. Husted
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
58
42
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- IowaLean R
Turek vs. Hinson
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- TexasLean D
Talarico vs. Paxton
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- MaineLean D
Jackson vs. Collins
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
62
38
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Mary Peltola is the Democrat. Incumbent advanced to general. How the simulation works