New Mexico Senate
Luján wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates New Mexico safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+17.7, and 8 in 10 fall between D+9.8 and D+25.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ben Ray Luján (D) vs. Larry Marker (R)
If the election were today: Luján, 100 in 100
Beside the benchmarks
| Our simulation, Nov. 3 | Luján 99 in 100 |
|---|---|
| Statistics only, no simulation | Luján 99 in 100 |
| Prediction markets | Luján 98% |
| Poll average | D+17.2 |
| Cook Political Report | Safe D |
The spread
100 of the 40,000 simulated elections
Each dot is one simulated election, placed by its margin.
Margin
Our range beside the poll average
Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the dot is the middle result.
Over time
Luján's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
What moved it
The news, as the voter personas reacted to it
No story moved this race today. It runs on statistics, with the biggest stories on watch.
What the news is worth.All news so far moves the Nov. 3 margin by D+0.3 (0.1 from switching, 0.1 from turnout). If news matters less, Luján wins 99 in 100; if it matters more, 99.
Other close races
- AlaskaToss-up
Peltola vs. Sullivan
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio (special)Lean D
Brown vs. Husted
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
58
42
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- IowaLean R
Turek vs. Hinson
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- TexasLean D
Talarico vs. Paxton
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ben Ray Luján is the Democrat. Incumbent renominated. How the simulation works