Montana Senate
Alme wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates Montana safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+16.6, and 8 in 10 fall between R+24.3 and R+8.9.
IND WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Seth Bodnar (I) vs. Kurt Alme (R)
If the election were today: Alme, 99 in 100
Beside the benchmarks
| Our simulation, Nov. 3 | Bodnar 1 in 100 |
|---|---|
| Statistics only, no simulation | Bodnar 1 in 100 |
| Prediction markets | Bodnar 7% |
| Poll average | R+22.0 |
| Cook Political Report | Safe R |
The spread
100 of the 40,000 simulated elections
Each dot is one simulated election, placed by its margin.
Margin
Our range beside the poll average
Bars run from the 10th to the 90th percentile; the dot is the middle result.
Over time
Bodnar's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
What moved it
The news, as the voter personas reacted to it
No story moved this race today. It runs on statistics, with the biggest stories on watch.
What the news is worth.All news so far moves the Nov. 3 margin by I+0.3 (0.2 from switching, 0.1 from turnout). If news matters less, Bodnar wins 1 in 100; if it matters more, 1.
Other close races
- AlaskaToss-up
Peltola vs. Sullivan
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio (special)Lean D
Brown vs. Husted
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
58
42
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- IowaLean R
Turek vs. Hinson
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- TexasLean D
Talarico vs. Paxton
Open the race →DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Seth Bodnar is the the independent, counted apart from both parties. Incumbent retiring. How the simulation works