November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org
The state of the Senate

Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate+1 for Democrats this week

Polls alone: Republicans hold 50+ in 44 in 100 · Markets: Republicans 35%

Republicans hold

38in 100

Democrats reach 51

61in 100

Independents decide

1in 100

Alaska: Peltola wins 53 in 100 simulated electionsAK53Maine: Jackson wins 64 in 100 simulated electionsME64VT: no Senate race in 2026VTNew Hampshire: Pappas wins 95 in 100 simulated electionsNH95WA: no Senate race in 2026WAIdaho: Risch wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsID100Montana: Alme wins 99 in 100 simulated electionsMT99ND: no Senate race in 2026NDMinnesota: Flanagan wins 87 in 100 simulated electionsMN87Illinois: Stratton wins 99 in 100 simulated electionsIL99WI: no Senate race in 2026WIMichigan: El-Sayed wins 82 in 100 simulated electionsMI82NY: no Senate race in 2026NYRhode Island: Reed wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsRI100Massachusetts: Markey wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsMA100Oregon: Merkley wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsOR100NV: no Senate race in 2026NVWyoming: Hageman wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsWY100South Dakota: Rounds wins 99 in 100 simulated electionsSD99Iowa: Hinson wins 55 in 100 simulated electionsIA55IN: no Senate race in 2026INOhio: Brown wins 62 in 100 simulated electionsOH62PA: no Senate race in 2026PANew Jersey: Booker wins 98 in 100 simulated electionsNJ98CT: no Senate race in 2026CTCA: no Senate race in 2026CAUT: no Senate race in 2026UTColorado: Hickenlooper wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsCO100Nebraska: Ricketts wins 79 in 100 simulated electionsNE79MO: no Senate race in 2026MOKentucky: Barr wins 98 in 100 simulated electionsKY98West Virginia: Capito wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsWV100Virginia: Warner wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsVA100MD: no Senate race in 2026MDDelaware: Coons wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsDE100AZ: no Senate race in 2026AZNew Mexico: Luján wins 99 in 100 simulated electionsNM99Kansas: Marshall wins 61 in 100 simulated electionsKS61Arkansas: Cotton wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsAR100Tennessee: Hagerty wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsTN100North Carolina: Cooper wins 94 in 100 simulated electionsNC94South Carolina: Graham wins 83 in 100 simulated electionsSC83DC: no Senate race in 2026DCOklahoma: Hern wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsOK100Louisiana: Letlow wins 93 in 100 simulated electionsLA93Mississippi: Hyde-Smith wins 94 in 100 simulated electionsMS94Alabama: Moore wins 100 in 100 simulated electionsAL100Georgia: Ossoff wins 97 in 100 simulated electionsGA97HI: no Senate race in 2026HITexas: Talarico wins 63 in 100 simulated electionsTX63Florida: Moody wins 87 in 100 simulated electionsFL87
  • Safe D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Safe R
  • Independent

Toss-up: 45 to 55 in 100. Select a state for its race.

Republican seats

← Democrats controlRepublicans keep control →39 republican seats: 0.1% of simulated elections40 republican seats: 0.2% of simulated elections41 republican seats: 0.6% of simulated elections42 republican seats: 1.3% of simulated elections43 republican seats: 2.5% of simulated elections44 republican seats: 4.4% of simulated elections45 republican seats: 7.0% of simulated elections46 republican seats: 10.1% of simulated elections47 republican seats: 11.7% of simulated elections48 republican seats: 12.2% of simulated elections49 republican seats: 11.9% of simulated elections50 republican seats: 10.9% of simulated elections51 republican seats: 9.3% of simulated elections52 republican seats: 6.9% of simulated elections53 republican seats: 4.8% of simulated elections54 republican seats: 2.9% of simulated elections55 republican seats: 1.5% of simulated elections56 republican seats: 0.9% of simulated elections57 republican seats: 0.4% of simulated elections58 republican seats: 0.2% of simulated elections59 republican seats: 0.1% of simulated elections4044485256Republican seats (50 for control)
If the election were today
30 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
44 in 100
Prediction markets
35%
If news matters less / more
41 / 35

All figures are Republican control; the prediction markets show the Republican price.

Social simulation, not a pollWed, 28 Oct 2026

The closest races

All 35 races

Simulator

What if the country shifts?

Polls can miss together, and late news can move every state at once. Drag the national swing to see how the Senate changes across our simulated elections.

No change
R+8No changeD+8

Moves every race’s margin by the same amount and recounts our 1,000 stored simulated elections. A what-if for exploring, not a forecast.

Loading the simulated elections…

Every race

Race by race

Sort
Chance of winning, Nov. 3
AlaskaPeltola vs. Sullivan
Peltola 53 in 100Toss-up

Markets 74% · Polls D+2.8 · Cook Toss-up

IowaTurek vs. Hinson
Hinson 55 in 100Lean R

Markets 44% · Polls R+0.2 · Cook Toss-up

KansasHamilton vs. Marshall
Marshall 61 in 100Lean R

Markets 40% · Polls D+0.4 · Cook Toss-up

Ohio (special)Brown vs. Husted
Brown 62 in 100Lean D

Markets 68% · Polls D+2.5 · Cook Toss-up

TexasTalarico vs. Paxton
Talarico 63 in 100Lean D

Markets 67% · Polls D+1.9 · Cook Toss-up

MaineJackson vs. Collins
Jackson 64 in 100Lean D

Markets 62% · Polls D+1.1 · Cook Toss-up

NebraskaOsborn vs. Ricketts
Ricketts 79 in 100Likely R

Markets 28% · Polls R+1.1 · Cook Likely R

MichiganEl-Sayed vs. Rogers
El-Sayed 82 in 100Likely D

Markets 69% · Polls D+2.4 · Cook Toss-up

South CarolinaAndrews vs. Graham
Graham 83 in 100Likely R

Markets 21% · Polls R+0.3 · Cook Lean R

Today: the Democrat’s (or independent’s) chance in 100 if the election were held today. Markets: that candidate’s price on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. Poll avg.: the margin. Markets and Cook are shown for comparison and never enter the forecast.

What moved

The stories behind today’s changes

Each story’s effect on the Nov. 3 margin, after the voter personas’ reactions and the fade with time. Stories are summarized neutrally, without outlet names.

  • D+0.5MississippiGasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.
  • D+0.3KansasGasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.
  • D+0.3North CarolinaGasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.
  • D+0.3South CarolinaGasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.
  • D+0.2AlaskaGasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.
  • D+0.2Florida (special)Gasoline prices under President Trump have risen above the average level recorded during the Biden administration.

Over time

Republican chance of keeping the Senate

025507510012 Oct18 Oct24 Oct28 Oct38